“Duration Trade” to “Recession Trade”: Early Indications for a Transition

Weekly updates on the innovation economy.

Summary

• We introduce concepts related to the "Duration Trade" vs. "Recession Trade.

• There is a wide divergence in the performance returns of several sample categories of long duration assets when comparing performance between Q2 2020-Q1 2021 and YTD 2022 performance.

• The relationship in returns between stock market indices and long-term Treasuries can be u…